THE TRUTH ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

I have been a realtor since the 70’s. I have experienced every market swing you can imagine. I have sold more homes, more apartments and more waterfronts in West Vancouver than any other realtor. I have achieved every goal my business has to offer, including being number one realtor in West Vancouver, Vancouver and Canada. With these credentials I feel I am qualified to comment on the market.

THE REAL ESTATE BOARD

At least 99% of all realtors depend on the stats our Real Estate Board produces each month. The realtors use these stats to inform their clients about the market so they are able to make proper decisions pertaining to their real estate holdings. Unfortunately the Board is always 2-3 months behind. What this means is that they can never really know when the market takes off or collapses. I new in January out market would probably collapse by May and it did. I made the same prediction in January 2008, about a May collapse and it not only happened but it was the worst market of all time. A lot of realtors will say Angell is down on the market, well my answer to them is you do not become one of the biggest selling realtor in Canada’s history by being negative. The truth is those comments always come from realtors who will never reach my success level. I spend 10 hours a week analysing the market throughout the Lower Mainland. I guarantee you no other realtors feels the need to do that as they depend on the stats the board puts out. After checking the Board’s stats for each months and comparing it to the actual number of sales they have been as high as 32% off. On a collapsing market that is criminal. A great realtor knew in January the market would end in May, a good realtor knew it actually ended in May, all the rest followed the Boards stats and thought it was still good in August. As late as September our Board was telling realtors, the press, the Government that the market was getting back to normal. I got a flyer in October that our numbers were reaching typical levels. Well I’m here to tell you our business is like all the others, you are a leader or a follower, most are followers. A typical market means to be we are having average sales for that month. I went back to the year 2000 and worked out the October sales, as of this date we are 41% behind the average, which is equal to the worst market of all time. I equate this to what is going on in the US election, all is not right.

THE GOVERNMENT

It is my opinion that the most qualified people do not run for Government. The price you pay is to high, and there is more money made in the private sector. The fact that we have Trudeau, Trump and Clinton running North America is proof of these facts. The Government has decided to get involved in my Business but their decisions are based on getting re-elected, not what is best for the people. The 15% tax which in my opinion is illegal, only harmed our home owners. It is my belief that the off shore buyer will get their deposits back, due to the government’s frustration of their contract. The deals that followed the off shore purchase will not be so lucky. The Government has just cost every home owner 25% drop in their home’s value. The off shore buyer after getting their deposit back may return and buy the same house through a non off shore buyer for 25% less. Perhaps if the Government was told that the market had bottomed in May and was correcting itself they may not have implemented the 15% tax, but I doubt it.

THE CONDO MARKET

The Condo market had more sales in West Vancouver last year than any previous year. Pre tax this year we averages 29 sales a month, post tax we are down to 12 sales a month. Prices are just starting to adjust.

MY PREDICTIONS

Most Realtors will tell you the market will be slow for the balance of the year, but will pick up early next year due to the pent up demand. Yes as always there will be more sales in the spring, but never in our history has the market gone up, gone down then immediately gone back up. By spring your home will have dropped at least 25% and will take you a few years to recover that 25%. Flat markets always follow the rise and fall markets. The good news about the next 3 or 4 months is that you won’t get many showings but if you are lucky enough to sell you will get more money than next year. There are two things I tell my clients at this time of year, 1/3 of our product will come off the market at this time so your completion is less and any buyer who views your home in this rainy season is a real buyer.
The market is as bad as it ever been, but it is your money so don’t waste it, outside your immediate family and other than your family doctor your choice of realtor should be the most important decision you will ever make.